Lithium-ion (Li-ion) EV battery prices have decreased dramatically over the past few years, mainly due to the fall in prices of critical battery metals: Lithium, cobalt and nickel. For example, the price of cobalt has fallen from roughly $70,000 per metric ton in 2022 to about $30,000 in 2024.
Are battery cell prices falling?
We are in the midst of a year-long acceleration in the decline of battery cell prices, a trend that is reminiscent of recent solar cell price reductions. Since last summer, lithium battery cell pricing has plummeted by approximately 50%, according to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL), the world's largest battery manufacturer.
The cost of raw materials, particularly lithium carbonate, plays a significant role in the pricing of lithium-ion batteries. The recent decrease in lithium prices has been a major factor in lowering battery costs. As lithium is a key component in these batteries, fluctuations in its price directly impact the overall cost of battery production.
What factors affect the cost reduction of battery cells?
Within the historical period, cost reductions resulting from cathode active materials (CAMs) prices and enhancements in specific energy of battery cells are the most cost-reducing factors, whereas the scrap rate development mechanism is concluded to be the most influential factor in the following years.
The price of lithium-ion batteries has been on a downward trend, reaching a record low of $139 per kWh in 2023 and continuing to decrease into 2024. The reduction in lithium prices, increased production capacity, and technological advancements have all contributed to this trend.
Is the unit price of a battery cell based on factory size?
However, a high-volume market for all components of battery cells except cathode active material is assumed, meaning that the unit price of all components in a battery cell except cathode active material are independent of factory size. The latter approach is adopted in this work.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) sees pack manufacturing costs dropping further, by about 20% by 2025, whereas cell production costs decrease by only 10% relative to their historic low in 2021. This warrants further analysis based on future trends in material prices.